Clustering or Scattering? The Spatial Distribution of Cropland in a Metropolitan Region, 1960–2010

Urban Farm DB summary

This study uses multivariate analysis to identify the socioeconomic transformations shaping cropland distribution in the Athens metropolitan region, Greece, from 1960 to 2010. The share of cropland in total municipal area increased moderately, with a non-linear relationship to distance from downtown Athens: the highest cropland rates occurred 20-30 km from the inner city. Decade-by-decade multivariate regressions using 11 predictors per municipality found distance from downtown, soil and climate quality, population growth rate, and competing land use to be the factors most associated with cropland change. Competing land use drove cropland decline during the first urbanization phase (1960-1980), while population growth became positively associated with cropland in a later phase (1990-2010); per-capita urban land was negatively correlated with cropland in 1960 and 1970 but positively in 2010, suggesting a shift from a monocentric toward a more dispersed metropolitan structure.