Examining the relationship between urban expansion and farmland protection under population decline: a multi-scale analytical framework

Urban Farm DB summary

A multi-scale analytical framework examined changing relationships between urban expansion and farmland protection during the transition from population growth to decline, applied to the Odawara region of Japan. Since population decline began in 2010, conflicts between urban expansion and farmland protection have remained concentrated along the urban-agricultural fringe, with farmland loss and fragmentation continuing despite reduced development pressure, and population change was found to indirectly cause paddy field loss via built-up land expansion with a five-year lag. The main driver of farmland loss has shifted from urban development to agriculture-related loss driven by labor shortages and low farming efficiency, and agricultural promotion areas moderately retain paddy fields but offer only limited protection against fragmentation.