Human health risk and remedial goal assessment using Monte Carlo simulation: a case study of arsenic contaminated allotment gardens in southern Poland

Urban Farm DB summary

Quantifies total arsenic, gastric-phase in vitro bioaccessible arsenic (IVBA) and direct-soil-exposure risks for children and adults in mining-affected allotment gardens in Złoty Stok, southern Poland, applying deterministic calculations and Monte Carlo simulation to incidental soil ingestion, dermal contact and inhalation of resuspended particles. Total As ranged 433–1148 mg/kg and IVBA 4.5–23.5%. Under the total-As multi-pathway scenario median hazard indices were 5.50 for children and 0.62 for adults (P05/P95: 2.26/15.18 and 0.29/1.89). Median total cancer risk was 1.78×10⁻⁴ for children and 1.06×10⁻⁴ for adults, with 80.0% of simulated child profiles and 54.0% of adult profiles at or above 10⁻⁴. Ingestion and dermal contact accounted for nearly all modeled risk while inhalation was negligible; applying IVBA to the ingestion pathway alone cut the median ingestion-related hazard quotient and cancer risk by 89.3%. Total soil As and soil ingestion rate were the principal positive risk drivers, body weight inversely associated.