Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities

Urban Farm DB summary

A study of Beijing and Shanghai, China (2025) modeled decarbonization from adjusting the local-sourcing share of seven perishable food categories — vegetables, poultry, aquatic products, beef, and lamb among them — incorporating both production and cold-chain logistics emissions across multiple localization scenarios. Each 1% increase in localization of vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products cut 2020 emissions by 0.4-1.9 tCO2e, while the same 1% increase for beef and lamb raised emissions by 0.2-2.9 tCO2e; localization reduced the cold-chain emission share for every food category. A constrained "balancing strategy" cut 2020 emissions by about 0.76 MtCO2e (5%) in Beijing and 0.44 MtCO2e (2%) in Shanghai, and an unconstrained scenario maximizing urban agriculture use achieved 3-4 times more reduction. Under a business-as-usual projection, the strategy was estimated to offset over 90% of Beijing's added emissions by 2035, with a further 0.44 MtCO2e reduction possible in Shanghai. The findings indicate that importing more carbon-intensive ruminant meat while reallocating urban resources toward vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products could produce more sustainable food supplies in megacities.