The Quantitative & Comprehensive Appraisal of Urban Agricultural Sustainable Development in Shanghai

Urban Farm DB summary

A study of Shanghai, China, building an evaluation index system reflecting the characteristics of sustainable urban agricultural development, using a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the information entropy method to determine index weights, and applying it to time-series data from 1993 onward to produce a quantitative, comprehensive appraisal. The results comprise three findings. First, the population subsystem progressively became a main obstructive factor for sustainable urban agricultural development, the economic subsystem gradually became a main contributing factor, and the social subsystem grew more important in raising development capability, while cultivated land resources became increasingly scarce and continued to decrease, constraining improvement, and the heavy burden of agricultural production's self-pollution had a negative effect on the overall upgrade of development capability. Second, the resource (R-D) composite index was not high and declined significantly, averaging 1.9090 over 1993-2006 and falling 6.00% per year from 2.5336 in 1993 to 0.5541 in 2006, indicating growing resource pressure; the environmental (E-D) composite index was smaller and changed little, remaining around 1.0000 in most years, with environmental pressure staying high but stable. Third, after earlier wave-like fluctuations, the overall composite evaluation index entered a sustained, steady climb, with a significant increasing trend in development capability.