Phosphorus (§ Reserves / § Conservation and recycling) — redirected from 'Peak phosphorus'

Urban Farm DB summary

The URL for 'Peak phosphorus' now redirects to the Reserves section of Wikipedia's 'Phosphorus' article. Per a 2023 USGS estimate, world commercially extractable phosphate rock reserves are 72 billion tons, against 2022 world mining production of 220 million tons — implying roughly 300 years of supply at zero growth. Before new deposits were discovered in Norway in 2023, Earth's commercially affordable phosphorus reserves were expected to be depleted in 50-100 years. Reserve estimates are described as contested: a 2010 IFDC report is criticized by a 2014 review as presenting 'an inflated picture of global reserves,' particularly for Morocco, where largely hypothetical and inferred resources were simply relabeled 'reserves.' The article also states that a shortage in rock phosphate or significant price increases might negatively affect world food security. Mitigation measures cited include reducing agricultural runoff (no-till farming, contour tilling, windbreaks), incinerating phosphorus-rich sewage sludge and recovering the ash, and recovering phosphorus-rich materials such as struvite from waste — though current recovery technologies are described as not yet cost-effective given phosphorus market prices.

Only numbers and their conditions are stored, as structured data — never the source's own sentences. Metric and condition names stay in English, as coded.

• 72 billion_metric_tons

  world reserves(phosphate rock reserves)

  Economics

  year

  2023

  source

  USGS

• 220 million_metric_tons

  world mine production(phosphate rock production)

  Economics

  year

  2022

  source

  USGS

• 300 years

  reserves to production ratio(phosphate rock reserves)

  Economics

  assumption

  zero production growth

  source

  USGS 2023

• 50–100 years

  depletion estimate pre 2023 discovery(phosphate rock reserves)

  Economics

  note

  estimate before 2023 Norway discovery

Direction of conclusions

Each author conclusion is recorded only as a coded direction per topic. Read the original for the conclusion itself.

• Economic viabilityMixedWith caveats
• Food securitySupportsWith caveats